The 6th Power Price Forecasting Summit in Amsterdam, Netherlands on January 15 – 16, 2025 brought together industry experts and decision-makers. They addressed the issues related to power price forecasting. In addition, given the pace of change in the energy industry caused by the emergence of renewable energy generation, geopolitical instabilities, and changing regulatory environments, the summit provided the necessary forum for the sharing of knowledge and collaboration. This article gives a comprehensive account of the sessions and sponsors that contributed to this event becoming a pillar in the development of power price forecasting strategies.
Sessions at the 6th Power Price Forecasting Summit
The sessions at the 6th Power Price Forecasting Summit brought together leading authorities and specialists to cover a wide spectrum of topics. Presentations considered critical topics relevant to the energy industry including the evolution of energy markets, the challenges of modeling power prices, etc. Below, we provide a comprehensive recap of the 6th Power Price Forecasting Summit:
Navigating the Future of the European Energy Market
Speaker: Martijn van Gemert, Director Market Insights, Vattenfall
The speaker presented the main forces that determine the concrete shape of the European energy market while it moves towards net-zero targets. The session discussed the basic functioning of power demand and supply. This showed the dilemmas in the scenario modeling for strategic decision-making. Moreover, through an analysis of market drivers and forecasting techniques, the speaker delivered practical advice on navigating a changing energy landscape. So, participants deepened their understanding of the coming trends and market dynamics. This made them ready to manage the challenges of the European energy market.
Evaluation of Croatian Electricity Market with the Introduction of Intraday Auctions (IDAs) and 15-minute Market Time Unit (MTU)
Speaker: Marko Kelava, Head of Market Operations Department, CROPEX
The speaker assessed the Croatian electricity market after the introduction of Intraday Auctions (IDAs) and the 15-minute Market Time Unit (MTU). Key topics included comparing market prices before and after IDAs, evaluating initial results of IDAs and MTU, and discussing price expectations for 2025. Moreover, the session emphasized the impact of these mechanisms on market efficiency and price stability. So, participants learned how these changes are unfolding in Croatia’s power market. They also learned how this energy domain is being navigated within other European markets facing similar changes.
Weather Variables as Key Influencers of Volume Forecasts and Electricity Prices
Speaker: Jarno Schipper, Senior Meteorologist, Uniper Energy
The presenter emphasized the importance that weather conditions play in energy prediction. Furthermore, sessions discussed the potential of integration of meteorological data to improve volume forecasting models and the way that weather-induced price fluctuations impact market outcomes critically. Moreover, advanced forecasting methods that are designed for intraday, short-term, and long-term situations were presented and discussed. So, concrete applications were brought forward to assist participants. This minimizes the impact of weather uncertainty, leading to increased accuracy of forecasts and more dependable predictions of the market.
Introducing the Intraday Auctions (IDAs) and 15-minute Market Time Unit (MTU) from EPEX Spot Perspective
Speaker: Kora Töpfer, Head of German Public & Regulatory Affairs, EPEX Spot
The presenter presented a synopsis of the IDAs and European energy market 15-minute MTU structure. Based on experience from EPEX Spot, the session discussed the implications of these mechanisms on the dynamics of electricity prices. The session also went through their contribution to the unification of the European power market. Moreover, comparative studies with day-ahead trading prices and forecasts for 2025 were presented. This gave participants an in-depth picture of the implications of IDAs for market efficiency and integration.
Forecasting Electricity Prices with Uncertainty
Speakers: Stef Schrijer, Quant Developer, KYOS Energy Consulting & Fabrizio Morra, Quantitative Analyst, KYOS Energy Consulting.
The session at the 6th Power Price Forecasting Summit provided valuable insights into handling market complexities. Speakers talked about the application of a fundamental model to forecast electricity prices with the factors of uncertainties. It includes weather, fuel price, and supply stack changes. Furthermore, they discussed strategies for introducing these uncertainties into forecasts and thereby obtaining more reliable results. The session also included a battery valuation case study. This gave simulations with day-ahead, intraday, and imbalance prices. This case study also highlighted methods to manage price changes effectively, contributing to the decisions based on the energy markets.
Renewable Energy Market Simulation and Scenario Analysis for Long-term Forecast Accuracy
Speaker: Peny Panagiotakopoulou, Senior Manager, UK Market Analytics Strategy, Innovation and Market Analytics, National Grid
The presenter discussed the creation of realistic simulation models for predicting the long-term evolution of renewable energy markets. Particular priority was given to the inclusion of variables. It includes technological developments, policy reform, and economic stimulation, in scenario analyses. Furthermore, the session emphasized the modeling of the integration of various renewable energy sources into the energy mix. This is for price competitiveness and commercial viability. So, it presented the attendees with the strategies to respond to a changing market landscape.
Balancing Markets and Associated Modeling Challenges
Speaker: Kia Marie Jerichau, Senior Director, Flexibility and Balancing, Energinet
The presenter mentioned the difficulties in terms of extreme volatility and randomness. Furthermore, key topics included dependency on renewable forecasts, challenges in predicting imbalance prices, and the application of advanced statistical and machine learning models. The session also discussed problems of data availability and their effects on regional balancing approaches. It brought practical solutions to optimize market operations and improve forecasting accuracy in turbulent environments.
Ancillary Services, Intraday Markets, and Associated Modeling Changes
Speaker: Ignacio Cobo, Senior Principal in AFRY Management Consulting, AFRY
The speaker made a detailed description of ancillary services their development and complexities in energy markets. Furthermore, topics included modeling approaches for ancillary services & real-time products, calibration techniques for projecting service performance, and practical use cases from AFRY. Moreover, the session emphasized the importance of adapting to changing market demands through innovative modeling and strategic planning. So, attendees heard how to improve the ancillary services that can be used to meet changing energy needs.
Evolving Energy Storage Markets: Implications for Market Dynamics and Short-term Power Price Forecasting
Speakers: Aniruddh Sridhar, Consultant, Elia Grid International & Hassan Kaouk, Business Developer, Elia Grid International
The speakers examined the transformative role of energy storage in modern power markets. The session dealt with storage adoption trends, the consequences of grid integration, and uncertainties of storage availability and charging/discharging behavior. So, by incorporating energy storage capabilities into short-term forecasting models, participants were equipped with actionable strategies. This is to optimize market dynamics and address supply-demand imbalances effectively.
Leveraging Price and Volume Forecasts for Energy Portfolio Management
Speaker: Berto Martins, Head of Short-term Asset Optimization, EDP
The speaker showed how good price and volume forecasts optimize energy portfolio performance. Furthermore, the areas covered by sessions consisted of strategic asset allocation, scenario analysis, and stress testing to reduce risk and increase return. The session also focused on what the practices on the side of the forecasters should be aligned with respect to sustainability and in terms of regulatory requirements. So, attendees gained actionable insights into leveraging precise forecasts. This is to improve decision-making and portfolio management in a dynamic energy market.
Intraday Auctions (IDAs) and 15-minute Market Time Unit (MTU) of Eye of TSOs.
Speaker: Jean-Michel Reghem, Team Lead Market Integration, Elia
The session discussed the structure and effect of IDAs and the 15-minute MTU in Belgium and German energy markets. Speakers assessed the initial IDAs and MTU results and compared them with day-ahead electricity prices. The session also points out the important role of IDAs in the evolution of the Single European Power Market. Additionally, the session took a forward-looking approach. It went through the price expectations for 2025 and how new market mechanisms can shape future energy price dynamics in Europe.
Identifying, Mitigating, and Managing Your Energy Requirements through PPAs
Speaker: Michela Beltracchi, Senior Advisor, Public & Regulatory Affairs, NordPool Group.
The speaker discussed the types of PPAs across Europe. Furthermore, topics included modeling prerequisites, pricing challenges, and strategies to hedge price risk and mitigate price fluctuation. So, through the discussion of current challenges and the practical frameworks, the session allowed the attendees to best capitalize on energy contracts. It also helped the attendees to negotiate PPAs confidently in an unpredictable market.
Long-term Market Pricing and Insights into the Electricity Mix
Speaker: Alberto Castiglioni, Head Desk Analysis Power, Alpiq
The speaker identified long-term trends in electricity market prices and specifically how these trends influence the pricing dynamics of the future. Furthermore, the areas discussed ranged from the impact of renewable energy integration on the electricity mix to policy and regulatory considerations shaping the long-term electricity landscape. So, the session provided strategic insights on how to respond to the changing market landscape and how to create robust long-term plans to respond to shifts in the electricity mix.
Evaluating the Influence of Grid Congestion on the European Electricity Market and Power Prices
Speaker: Milan Vukasovic, Senior Team Lead Coordinator, “International Congestion Management”, Austrian Power Grid AG
The session at the 6th Power Price Forecasting Summit discussed the economic and operating consequences of grid curtailment. Furthermore, it focused on particular cases where congestion has dramatically affected power prices. The discussion also focused on how regulatory frameworks shape grid congestion and market dynamics. This evaluated the effectiveness of current regulations in managing congestion. Additionally, the session explored the implications of grid congestion on the demand for ancillary services. This sheds light on how congestion can influence their need and pricing within the broader energy landscape.
PPA-pricing Using Long-term Forecasts
Speaker: Dr. Matthias Klapper, Senior Contract Analyst, Vattenfall
The session focused on PPA pricing using long-term forecasts, addressing the valuation of assets, and the assessment of all pricing components. Furthermore, the speaker stressed the need for risk assessment of long-term price regimes, especially in price-sensitive market environments. The session also gave insights into how long-term forecasts can be used to provide context for the financial and operational risks associated with PPAs. This guarantees an integrated approach to pricing and risk management.
Forecasting European Energy Capture Prices: Key Drivers for the Future
Speaker: Tarjei Kristiansen, Senior Quantitative Analyst, Danske Commodities
The speaker highlighted important drivers that are contributing to the cost of European energy capture. Furthermore, the topics of the sessions were forces driving electricity prices, robust simulation frameworks, scenario analyses, and strategic planning & policy developments in response to ongoing energy transitions. So, the session offered actionable insights into adapting to future market challenges and provided clarity on the key drivers influencing energy capture prices.
Who Were the Sponsors for the 6th Power Price Forecasting Summit?
The 6th Power Price Forecasting Summit was sponsored by KYOS and AFRY, whose contributions greatly added value to the summit. Let us take a deeper look ahead:
KYOS – Presenting Partner
KYOS is a premier, financial-analytical software and consulting service provider, serving more than 70 companies worldwide. Their KYOS Analytical Platform is a best-in-class solution for valuation and risk management for renewable projects, PPAs, gas storage, and power plants.
During the 6th Power Price Forecasting Summit, KYOS prioritized uncertainties in electricity market price forecasting. By presenting advanced methods to evaluate weather, fuel price fluctuations, and supply stack dynamics, KYOS empowered attendees with actionable tools for improving forecast accuracy. Their insights were complemented by practical applications, such as battery valuation case studies. This highlighted their expertise in managing market volatility.
AFRY – Presenting Partner
AFRY is an internationally recognized advisory company focused on driving sustainable change in the energy and bioindustry sectors. Robust globally through more than 800 consultants in 20 offices and an additional 19,000 experts, AFRY provides transformative solutions to the energy markets.
Within the scope of the 6th Power Price Forecasting Summit, AFRY’s session explored ancillary services and real-time modeling approaches. They also gave detailed information about how to calibrate models for best performance and shared practical solutions for dealing with the changing market environment. Through exploring challenges in service integration and showing demonstrable applications, AFRY enabled delegates to gain the practical tools that will permit them to improve efficiency and respond to changing energy needs. Their contributions helped reinforce their standing as an industry expert in energy transformation.
To Sum Up
The 6th Power Price Forecasting Summit ignited discussions about the future of power pricing and market forecasting. Through expert panels and collaborative sessions, the conference cut to the core of current trends and challenges in the industry. Attendees left with a stronger understanding of how to leverage emerging technologies and strategies for success in a rapidly evolving energy market. If you want to continue exploring such cutting-edge strategies and solutions in your industry, stay tuned for future summits!