Energy markets are evolving faster than the models we use to observe them. The grid is rapidly moving toward renewables. As such, traditional models for pricing are breaking down. This year’s 7th Power Price Forecasting summit was a gathering of doers. Risk managers and grid operators met to compare theory against a volatile reality. Nobody pretended to know everything. But the talks were very frank. Here’s a rundown on the core technical issues and the key speaker sessions. It also includes the strategic insights from our event partner, which was instrumental in guiding this critical industry discussion.
Sessions: 7th Power Price Forecasting Summit
Experts and industry leaders converged in Amsterdam to analyze energy market developments. So, here are the main strategic and technical takeaways from the 7th Power Price Forecasting Summit:
From Perfect Foresight to Reality: Day Ahead Battery Optimization – Lessons Learned from a Real Use-Case
Speaker: David Declercq, Head of Risk Management and Portfolio Optimization Europe, ContourGlobal
Battery models often look perfect on a computer screen, but David showed what happens when they hit the live market. Capture rates usually fall short of expectations. Cycling costs also pile up in ways that most models fail to price in correctly. So, operating constraints in the real world behave nothing like clean data inputs. David shared hard numbers to define problems that usually stay vague in these talks. Furthermore, he was very direct about the gap between theoretical promises and what storage assets actually deliver. It was the exact reality check most commercial battery operators need.
Insights into the Electricity System Based on Elia’s Latest Adequacy & Flexibility (NRAA) Study for the Upcoming 10 Years
Speaker: Louis Magein, Adequacy Studies Manager, Elia
Louis presented Elia’s latest ten-year study and carefully explained the math behind the results. He walked through how market dispatch and grid reliability models work together. The session showed how prices might change as more renewables join the mix over the next decade. So, this shift has massive implications for the revenue of thermal power plants. The main question was whether these plants can stay profitable without extra government support. Moreover, for the current energy debate in Belgium, this is a pressing reality. Louis treated the topic with the technical depth it required.
Evolving Forecasting Models in Energy: How to Generate BESS Revenue Forecasts
Speakers: Alessandro Bertola & Matteo Ferro, Quantitative Developers, KYOS
Alessandro and Matteo highlighted a massive problem at the 7th Power Price Forecasting Summit that the energy industry rarely admits. A huge portion of battery revenue forecasts used for investments would not survive a serious technical review. The pair explained what a trustworthy assessment actually looks like. KYOS uses three separate layers, including fundamental, simulation, and optimization models. They showed exactly how the math breaks when you try to simplify these layers too much. Additionally, this was not just a sales pitch for their software. It served as a vital map for spotting where most revenue projections go wrong.
From Days to Decades: Power Market Modelling Across Varying Horizons
Speaker: Jordan Banting, Power Systems Modelling Lead, Field Energy
Jordan pointed out a distinction that seems simple but is often ignored. Short, medium, and long-term forecasting are entirely different disciplines with unique data hurdles. Each time window answers a different business question and carries its own risks. He explained what each horizon requires from a modeling team. Jordan also challenged teams that rely too much on machine learning while ignoring market fundamentals. Furthermore, he argued that skipping basic market knowledge will eventually lead to bad results. His case for balancing tech with market expertise was a highlight of the day.
Maximizing the Usage of Cluster Forecasting
Speaker: Peter Kerkmans, Head of Weather Analysis, Alpiq
Modern weather models provide a massive amount of data points. The real challenge is deciding which ones to actually use. Peter showed how Alpiq solves this by grouping similar weather scenarios into clusters. This process turns messy visual charts into clean data curves for power models. He also explained how they use machine learning to improve these forecasts over time. Furthermore, this session offered immediate value for anyone working where weather meets power trading. So, it turned a complex scientific process into a practical workflow that forecasting teams can use right now.
BRAINSTORMING SESSION: Power Price Forecasting at the Crossroads
Open Discussion
This session had no slides. It functioned as an open talk about the limits of current forecasting technology. Participants discussed how changing market structures are making old inputs obsolete. The conversation got honest about what uncertainty looks like when even market basics are shifting. This format also worked because people were willing to share their actual struggles. Some of the most helpful tips of the entire summit happened during these unscripted moments. So, it filled the gaps that polished presentations often miss by focusing on real-world friction.
From Market Noise to Strategy: Leveraging Early Indicators
Speaker: Tobias Wurzer, Senior Strategy Advisor & Market Intelligence Expert, Business Area Wind, Vattenfall
Tobias noted at the 7th Power Price Forecasting Summit that most market intelligence teams are set up to react to news rather than lead. He showed how Vattenfall’s wind team built a dashboard to fix this. It tracks economic, supply chain, and political trends to find signals before they change prices. Moreover, the session included real examples of when this system gave them time to act early. Tobias was also very honest about the areas where the system still has blind spots. As a result, that level of transparency made his strategy feel much more credible and useful to the audience.
Offshore Hybrid Assets Modelling: Insights and Challenges
Speaker: Cyrielle Mainguy, Senior Energy Market Analyst, National Grid
Cyrielle started by defining what offshore hybrids actually are. These assets combine power generation, storage, and cables into one offshore site. Because they come in many forms, they don’t all behave the same way in a model. She explained where standard modeling tools fail to capture their true costs and benefits. Cyrielle was blunt about the regulatory hurdles that make these projects difficult to plan. Moreover, investors are paying more attention to these assets lately. However, the truth is that the legal and commercial rules are still being developed.
PANEL DISCUSSION: Designing Markets, Shaping Prices: Regulation Meets System Reality
Moderator: Jochen Theis (Uniper)
Panelists: Eike Arndt (energy & meteo systems), Michael Bonda (Amprion), Krzysztof Łokaj (Wärtsilä)
Jochen led a fast-paced talk about market design and new regulations. The panelists came from very different backgrounds, which led to some healthy disagreements. They focused on how regulatory choices quietly change the assumptions inside every trading model. Many practitioners only notice these distortions after they have already caused problems. Additionally, the group didn’t try to sugarcoat the challenges or offer easy fixes. Instead, they highlighted how hard it is to stay ahead of policy shifts. So, it was a deep dive into the messy intersection of law and math.
Evolving Market Design and Its Implications for Power Price Forecasting
Speaker: Kora Töpfer, Head of German Public & Regulatory Affairs, EPEX SPOT
Kora at the 7th Power Price Forecasting Summit covered a massive amount of regulatory news without making it feel overwhelming. She explained how new European trading rules change the way markets link together. She also discussed the heated debate over pricing zones in Germany. These changes force analysts to completely recalibrate their price models. The most useful part of her talk focused on the downstream effects of these shifts. So, eisk metrics have to change, and investment plans can become fragile very quickly. She also showed that stable market assumptions are becoming a thing of the past.
How EU Balancing Platforms Shape Forecasting Requirements
Speaker: Michael Bonda, Referent International System Operations Coordination, Amprion
Michael argued that traders can no longer treat balancing markets as a secondary concern. He used hard data to show how prices and volumes have grown across European platforms. He also addressed the link between balancing prices and day-ahead markets. His answer was complex because the relationship between these markets is constantly shifting. The session gave the audience a better understanding of what an integrated forecast looks like. Furthermore, he made it clear that keeping these market segments in separate silos creates dangerous gaps in a company’s strategy.
Best Market Design that Can Ensure Secure, Affordable, and Green Energy
Speaker: Thomas McGoey, Advisor, Regulatory and Government Affairs, Nord Pool
Thomas didn’t try to push one single vision for the future. He looked at where European power markets stand today and pointed out where the pressure is building. He explained what the shift to renewable energy actually requires from a market perspective. Moreover, his experience across the UK, Ireland, and Central Europe provided a very broad view of the problem. The session didn’t claim to have all the answers for the energy transition. Instead, it framed the big questions more clearly than most policy discussions ever do for practitioners.
Batteries Exposure from Market Risk Perspective and Their Hedge
Speaker: Mario Dell’Era, Senior Quantitative Market Risk Manager, EnBW
Mario spoke about a problem that risk managers face every day. Battery assets do not fit neatly into traditional risk frameworks. He explained how to structure battery exposure and how to use financial swaps to protect the bottom line. Furthermore, he compared batteries to wind and solar projects to show where the hedging logic changes. So, the session stayed very specific and avoided high-level fluff. For the people doing the math on these assets daily, this level of detail was perfect. He provided a clear language for describing battery risks.
From Fundamental Forecast to Strategy: Deriving Strategic Decisions
Speaker: Jochen Theis, Senior Vice President, Quantitative Methods, Uniper
Jochen at the 7th Power Price Forecasting Summit opened with a blunt reminder. A forecast is worthless if it doesn’t actually change a business decision. He showed exactly where the bridge between a model and a board meeting usually collapses. He explained how to talk about model limits without losing the trust of the leaders. Moreover, a big part of the talk was about how a company’s business model should dictate what they forecast. This strategic view is often missing from technical discussions. Jochen put the “why” of modeling right at the center of his presentation.
PANEL DISCUSSION: Scenario Modelling 2030-2040: Managing Electrification, Industrial Loads, and Data Center Demand
Moderator: Jochen Theis (Uniper)
Panelists: Mario Dell’Era (EnBW), Jordan Banting (Field Energy), Dr. Gloria Colmenares (Fraunhofer IEG)
The closing panel agreed on a major shift in the industry. Predicting demand has become just as hard as predicting supply. Long-term models that treat power usage as a stable input are now outdated. Additionally, the experts discussed the massive uncertainty coming from data centers and new industrial growth. Gloria provided a research perspective that added a unique layer to the commercial talk. The group was very honest about how much they still don’t know about the next decade. It was a strong, realistic way to end the summit’s technical sessions.
KYOS: The Ideal Partner For The 7th Power Price Forecasting Summit
KYOS Energy Analytics is the leader in financial software and advisory services. Their analytical platform is used on a daily basis by more than 70 companies worldwide. It is the premier solution for valuing renewable projects and energy risk. Furthermore, the software includes gas storage as well as power plants. Portfolio managers can also rely on it for the daily financial reports.
KYOS employs a fundamental market model and a Monte Carlo engine. These instruments form realistic price simulations. Battery storage revenue was the focus of their session. Moreover, they maintained that massive investments require numbers that add up to succeed. Additionally, they defined three core models: the fundamental, the simulation, and the optimization.
To Sum Up
The energy world is moving beneath our feet. This 7th Power Price Forecasting Summit showed that getting ahead is about more than just better code. We need to talk honestly about where our models fail. We covered everything from battery risks to changing grid rules. These insights enable analysts to transform chaotic data into clear, successful strategies.
Reading the highlights is a good first step. But the magic is in the room. You get to question the experts and argue the logic in person. You can access the answers that aren’t in the slide deck. Don’t be left behind as the market charges forward. Register for our next summit and join the people who are leading the change.