Recap And Insights From The 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit

The 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit was held in Barcelona, Spain, on June 11-12, 2024. It brought together thought leaders, industry experts, and professionals from the power generation, energy trading, and utility sectors. Furthermore, this two-day event provided an invaluable platform. It addressed the dynamics shaping the future of the wholesale energy market. Moreover, it delved into the intricacies of power price forecasting and explored cutting-edge technologies and methodologies. In this article, we get deeper into what the sessions were about, the value addition that summits like these provide, and much more. So, let’s dive in.

Sessions At The 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit 

Each session in the 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit’s extensive schedule focused on a different facet of power price forecasting and its effects on the business. The following summarises the thought-provoking sessions:

Portfolio Optimization and the impact of price and Volume Forecasts on energy portfolios

Speaker: Aurel MINDRICAN, Commercial Optimization & Market Insights Director, EVRYO 

This session delved into the critical role of price and volume forecasts in optimizing energy portfolios. It looked at quantitative modeling strategies. Ones that make use of these projections to optimize portfolio performance. The session also reviewed risk management techniques based on price and volume projections. This was to help participants reduce possible risks and make wise decisions.

Long-term PPA valuation and structuring

Speaker: Dr. Matthias KLAPPER, Senior Contract Analyst, Sales and Origination Germany, Vattenfall 

The session included insightful information on the architecture and value of long-term PPAs. Furthermore, it included best practices for assessing contract architecture and flexibility as well as the effects of laws and regulations on PPA values. Attendees at the 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit gained knowledge on maximizing the value of long-term PPAs through effective valuation methods and contract negotiation strategies.

Pan-European power forecasts and analysis (Vendor Session)

This vendor session brought together industry leaders and solution providers, offering a comprehensive overview of pan-European power forecasts and analysis tools. Attendees learned about energy models for long-term, mid-term, and short-term analysis, enabling them to make informed decisions based on accurate forecasts. Additionally, the session showcased market simulation software for price forecasting and fundamental forecasts for market-driven models.

Risk and expected value of a solar-based portfolio and its integration with a baseload demand

Speaker: Nuno Faria da SILVA, European Power Director, Galp 

This session addressed the unique challenges and opportunities associated with solar-based portfolios and their integration with baseload demand. Attendees at the 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit by Future Bridge gained insights into historical volatility and future price uncertainty, enabling them to effectively develop strategies for managing risks. The session also covered techniques for understanding and modeling captured rates and methods for seamlessly integrating solar power with baseload demand.

European power market reform and new market design

Speaker: Rafael GÓMEZ-ELVIRA GONZÁLEZ, Director of Public Affairs and Marketing / Chairman EU NEMO Committee, OMIE 

As the European power market undergoes significant reforms, this session provided attendees with a comprehensive understanding of the evolving landscape. It covered the implementation of the Electricity Market Reform, National Energy & Climate Plans 2030, developments in EU SDAC & SIDC, and the emergence of flexibility markets. Attendees gained valuable insights into navigating these changes and adapting their strategies accordingly.

Challenges of weather modeling for high-quality input for short-term forecast (Vendor Session)

This vendor session explored the critical role of weather modeling in providing high-quality input for short-term forecasts. Attendees learned about weather and climate data analytics, weather modeling and forecasting techniques, climate data analysis and visualization tools, and strategies for risk management and planning for weather-related events. Solution providers showcased their offerings in weather data provision, analytics, and visualization.

Balancing markets and associated modeling challenges

Speaker: Iztok LAPANJA, Head of Advanced Analytics, interEnegro 

Balancing markets presents unique challenges that require advanced modeling techniques. This session addressed the complexities of dealing with extreme volatility and randomness, as well as the dependencies on renewable forecasts and forecast errors. Attendees gained insights into predicting imbalance prices using statistical, machine learning, and deep learning models, and the applicability of well-performing day-ahead and intraday market models for balancing markets. Additionally, the session discussed data availability and quality for different regions.

Evolving energy storage markets: Implications for market dynamics and short-term power price forecasting

Speaker: Antoine BUTTAZZONI, Asset Manager, Sonnedix 

As energy storage technologies continue to evolve, this session explored their implications for market dynamics and short-term power price forecasting. Attendees learned about trends and dynamics in energy storage adoption and grid integration, as well as their impact on supply-demand balance and peak shaving. The session also covered strategies for incorporating energy storage capabilities into short-term forecasting models, addressing uncertainties related to storage availability and charging/discharging patterns, and advanced modeling techniques for optimizing energy storage utilization in short-term operations.

Real-time data analytics driving short-term price forecasting precision (Vendor Session)

This vendor session showcased the power of real-time data analytics in driving short-term price forecasting precision. Attendees at the 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit discovered modeling applications of real-time market tracking and analysis, risk management strategies assisted by continuous data flow, and techniques for optimizing machine learning models with real-time data. Solution providers demonstrated their data analytics platforms, data visualization tools, forecasting services, and consulting offerings.

Navigating nodal and zonal markets

Speaker: Alex GOODEY, Market Analytics Manager, Strategy, Innovation and Market Analytics, National Grid 

This session provided valuable insights into navigating the complexities of nodal and zonal markets. Attendees learned about the differences in pricing and dispatch decisions, price formation efficiency, congestion, and transmission constraints management, as well as risk management and hedging strategies in different market structures. The session equipped attendees with the knowledge and tools to navigate these market structures effectively.

Current state of the German discussion of introducing a capacity market

Speaker: Dr. Johannes HENKEL, Head of Energy Market Development, 50 Hertz 

With Germany exploring the introduction of a capacity market, this session offered a timely and relevant discussion. Attendees gained insights into regulatory developments and market design innovations that could impact forecasting strategies. The session also covered adapting methodologies for changing capacity market dynamics and predictions for future European capacity markets.

Hydrogen economics and the support of long-term viability of renewables

Speaker: Ralf BERNHARD, Lead, Renewable Power Origination Central Europe, BP 

This session explored the role of hydrogen in supporting the long-term viability of renewable energy sources. Attendees at the 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit learned about EU regulations and targets for hydrogen development, subsidies in the EU, and the examination of price cannibalization dynamics in hydrogen economics. The session also covered best practices in modeling hydrogen prices, mapping the ambitions and policies driving hydrogen adoption across Europe, and exploring sector integration strategies to maximize the impact of the hydrogen economy. Additionally, attendees gained insights into the security of supply and storage capability, securing investment for (green) hydrogen projects, and meeting decarbonization targets.

Next-generation energy market modeling requirements (Vendor Session)

As the energy landscape evolves, this vendor session explored the next-generation energy market modeling requirements. Furthermore, attendees discovered how the evolving energy landscape impacts modeling, new modeling requirements for supporting regulators, investors, and traders, and the importance of understanding the impact of power and gas interaction on energy trading. The session also covered modeling requirements for renewable energy, energy storage, hydrogen, electrification of transport, and heating, as well as navigating challenges in zonal, sub-zonal, and nodal modeling.

Introduction of a new model developed by Naturgy on Electricity Price Risk

Speaker: Marta GONZÁLEZ TORRABADELLA, Corporate Risk Manager, Naturgy 

In this session, Naturgy introduced a new model for analyzing electricity price risk. Attendees acquired knowledge of the distinctions between past weather data and forecasts for the future, as well as sophisticated weather forecasting models. This is for intraday, short-term, and long-term price forecasting. Additionally, weather derivatives and hedging techniques for reducing price risks were discussed. This was along with the effects of weather-induced price spikes on market results.

Proactive risk management in the fast-changing energy environment, from creating a market view to discretionary actions based on the new market fundamentals

Speaker: Lukas REZNICEK, Head of Market Risk Management, Danske Commodities 

This session focused on proactive risk management strategies in the rapidly evolving energy environment. Furthermore, attendees gained insights into what constitutes proactive, prudential, and business-oriented risk management toward front-office units. Moreover, the session emphasized the importance of understanding long-term trends through a strong comprehension of short-term dynamics. Additionally, attendees learned lessons from the events of 2022, including frequent stress scenario analysis testing for market, credit, and liquidity risks, as well as Danske Commodities’ mid-term market risk management view on price development and economic development.

AI- and ML-driven electricity load and price forecasting (Vendor Session)

This vendor session showcased the power of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in driving electricity load and price forecasting. So, attendees at the 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit learned about optimizing power price predictions with AI-driven models and explored case studies on improved forecasting precision. Solution providers demonstrated their AI-driven forecasting solutions, ML-driven forecasting solutions, energy analytics software, and cloud solutions.

Increase of RES in the energy mix – modeling implications

Speaker: Gerasimos TAKIS-DEFTERAIOS, Senior Energy Trader, Optimus Energy 

As the energy mix evolves with more renewable energy sources (RES), this session explored modeling implications. Attendees learned about the impact of price models, the regulatory landscape, and its effect on the energy mix. The session examined impacts on short, medium, and long-term markets. It also covered weather patterns and their implications. This is for forecasting, energy storage developments, and risk management strategies for the new energy mix.

Evolution of wholesale power markets

Speaker: Miha PREGL, JSET Program Deputy Director and Director of European Electricity Markets, USEA 

This session provided an overview of the evolution of wholesale power markets. Furthermore, attendees learned about the current status of EU day-ahead and intraday markets. They also got to know of the upcoming developments in the EU, details for the Western Balkan region, and emerging trends and future outlooks. So, the session equipped attendees with a deep understanding of the changing landscape of wholesale power markets.

Renewable energy market simulation and scenario analysis for long-term forecast accuracy (Vendor Session)

In this vendor session, attendees discovered the power of renewable energy market simulation and scenario analysis for improving long-term forecast accuracy. Solution providers showed their offerings. They focused on strategies to adapt to market conditions and uncertainties. They also covered risk analysis, mitigation techniques, and optimizing generation assets. Attendees gained valuable insights. They learned to use these tools to enhance the accuracy of their long-term forecasts.

The 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit helped attendees understand power price forecasting. Moreover, the sessions provided practical strategies and new solutions to navigate the changing energy market.

The Value of Attending Industry Summits

Attending industry summits like the 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit by Future Bridge is crucial for energy professionals. These events help you learn, connect, and grow in your field.

Firstly, summits are great for knowledge exchange. Experts share insights, experiences, and best practices. Furthermore, attendees learn about trends, new technologies, and methods shaping power price forecasting. So, this helps professionals make informed decisions and adapt their strategies.

Secondly, these events offer valuable networking opportunities. Attendees can connect with peers, potential partners, and industry influencers. Moreover, building connections can lead to partnerships, new business opportunities, and idea exchanges. These elements drive innovation.

Furthermore, summits feature vendor sessions and exhibitions. So, attendees can explore the latest solutions, technologies, and services from top companies. As a result, this helps professionals stay updated and make informed choices for their organizations.

To Sum Up

The 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit provided guests with a thorough grasp of the possibilities, trends, and issues facing the power price forecasting business. This is by showcasing the breadth and depth of the field. Furthermore, the 5th Power Price Forecasting Summit addressed a wide variety of themes that are critical for professionals in the energy sector. It ranges from portfolio optimization and risk management methods to market design innovations and the integration of renewable energy sources.

Participating in industry summits such as this one by Future Bridge offers a unique chance to remain on top of developments. It also helps to network with key industry players and acquire priceless knowledge that can propel company success. Thus, be sure to keep an eye out for upcoming events and register!